Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 52: What's Bugging the Bond Market? With Noelle Acheson
May 14, 2025
Noelle Acheson, author of "Crypto Is Macro Now," dives deep into the complexities of the bond market and its disconnect from soft CPI data. She discusses the implications of Treasury yields, the potential market impact of a tariff pause, and what Coinbase joining the S&P 500 could mean. Acheson also highlights Ethereum's surprising upturn and the dollar's decline, suggesting it may boost crypto and risk assets. Her insights bridge traditional finance and the evolving world of digital currencies.
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10-Year Yield Danger Zone
- The 10-year Treasury yield around 4.5% to 5% is the danger zone that historically triggered tariff pauses.
- The government may act to reduce yields if they reach this pain point to protect economic stability.
Fed's Balancing Act
- The Fed may not cut rates soon despite inflation dropping, as it focuses on forward inflation and market stability.
- The Fed could provide liquidity through tools other than rate cuts to support Treasury market liquidity under stress.
Bitcoin's Dual Role
- Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in the short term due to volatility and liquidity sensitivity.
- It also functions as a safe haven over the medium to long term, uniquely blending both narratives.