Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 1st, 2025
4 snips
Oct 1, 2025 
Jon Lieber, Managing Director at Eurasia Group, analyzes the political ramifications of the federal government shutdown. He highlights potential long-term impacts and the dynamics within Democratic leadership. Greg Daco, Chief Economist at EY, dissects the latest ADP payrolls data, warning about shifts in labor market conditions and the risks to corporate profitability amid a K-shaped recovery. Tiffany Wilding from PIMCO discusses how monetary policy might respond to weakening labor indicators and the nuanced effects of tariffs on the economy.
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Shutdowns Rarely Move Elections
- Past shutdowns show little evidence of lasting electoral effects for either party.
- Voter blame may be diffuse and not decisively punish one side.
Labor Demand Weakening Amid Supply Constraints
- Labor demand is weakening while labor supply is also constrained by lower immigration, creating a fragile balance.
- ADP and JOLTS signals point to lower hires and a decade-low quits rate, signaling slowing labor market momentum.
Plan For Foggy Data During Shutdowns
- Expect economic data to be impaired during a shutdown and treat decision-making as operating with less reliable information.
- Use private-sector data and scenario planning to compensate while the official releases are disrupted.