Kontrarian Korner #95 - Rudy Havenstein & Robert (Infranomics)

5 snips

Apr 12, 2026

Robert (Infranomics), a supply‑chain and macro analyst with a big social media presence, and Rudy Havenstein, a contrarian monetary commentator known for sharp macro takes, discuss looming Middle East disruptions and market complacency. They cover energy shocks, supply‑chain ripple effects, political jawboning of markets, risks of prolonged entanglement, reindustrialization, and whether current institutions can be fixed or need replacement.

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INSIGHT

Complacent Markets Miss Looming Oil Shock

Markets show dangerous complacency after Middle East disruptions despite clear signs of a major oil supply shock.
Rudy and Robert compare the current calm to January 2020 before COVID and expect oil-driven inflation and supply-chain pain within 3–6 months.

INSIGHT

Strait Of Hormuz Shut Ins Multiply Energy Risk

The Strait of Hormuz shutdown and regional shut-ins equal a historic energy shock far larger than 2022 Russia disruptions.
Robert quantifies ~11m bpd shut in and notes rebuilding capacity and petrodollar financing will take months with major macro effects.

INSIGHT

Oil Price Discovery Is Distorted Not Organic

Oil price moves are being managed and manipulated, not purely market-discovered, masking the true upside risk.
Ben points to tanker flows, kinked supply hoses, and headline-driven kneejerk crashes that hide structural tightness.

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On Friday afternoon I had Rudy Havenstein and Robert from Infranomics on the podcast. We talked about recent events in the Middle East and the disruptions that are coming, the political situation and midterms, and why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I thought the most interesting part of the conversation was the back and forth on the political system. I wasn’t able to convince Rudy that the US should have a monarchy, but we all agreed that the system is very broken today. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he’s a must follow on Twitter. You can find Robert’s work on Twitter as well as his YouTube channel.

Podcast Summary

* How the recent events will feed into supply chains, inflation, and the complacency in financial markets.

* The political interference with financial markets, and the pattern of jawboning the markets.

* Why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and why all roads lead to the big print.

* Why they aren’t surprised by the effectiveness of the Iranian resistance and why Rudy thinks this could be a rerun of the Iraq war.

* The problem with the mainstream media environment and the propaganda environment on social media.

* How the midterm elections might turn out after the recent adventure in Iran and that abandonment of most of Trump’s campaign agenda.

* Anarchotyranny, frontier justice, and fix it politics.

* The push to reindustrialize the US and undoing some of the side effects of hyperfinancialization.

* The potential for a completely different political system, and why the system can’t be reformed through the system.

* The pros and cons of monarchy versus the current system.

* Book Recommendation: Sinister Forces by Peter Levenda.

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