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Todd Wenning on Flyover Stocks and Small Cap Moats $GMWKF, $ODFL, and $CPRT | S07 E43

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Dec 4, 2025

Guest

Todd Wenning

Todd Wenning, founder of Flyover Stocks and principal at K&A Capital, specializes in small-cap companies with economic moats. He unveils his approach to identifying these 'flyover' stocks and discusses the significance of management quality in investment outcomes. Engaging insights include the unique growth dynamics of Games Workshop's Warhammer IP and the stable network moat of Old Dominion Freight. Todd emphasizes the importance of intellectual humility in investing and shares how ESG factors can play a role in moat evaluation.

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ANECDOTE

Games Workshop As A Niche Moat Example

Games Workshop is a niche UK example with strong IP, retail, and community-driven demand.
Todd highlights the upcoming Henry Cavill project as a growth catalyst for the Warhammer franchise.

insights

INSIGHT

Hobbyist Communities Create Durable Flywheels

Hobbyist ecosystems create durable flywheels: IP, community, retail, and publishing reinforce each other.
Fans accept premium pricing to sustain the ecosystem and content creation.

volunteer_activism

ADVICE

Value Physical Network Density In LTL

In network businesses, evaluate physical footprint, node density, and sales to cover fixed costs.
Prefer firms with entrenched service-center networks and preferred-customer status like Old Dominion Freight Lines.

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Todd's Flyover Stocks & K&A Capital

00:17 • 1min

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Defining 'Flyover' and Teaching Role

01:36 • 54sec

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How Todd Finds Small-Cap Moats

02:30 • 2min

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When Management Breaks the Thesis

04:01 • 49sec

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Why Some Moats Stay Small

04:50 • 2min

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Games Workshop: Niche IP Flywheel

06:20 • 5min

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Games Workshop: Licensing & Growth Catalysts

11:46 • 2min

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Portfolio Mix: Moats and Cyclicals

14:16 • 37sec

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Old Dominion Freight: Network Moat

14:52 • 4min

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Trucking Cyclicality & Recent Weakness

18:42 • 3min

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Signs of Industrial Recovery

22:12 • 3min

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Macro Sentiment vs. Leading Indicators

25:00 • 4min

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Cost-of-Entry & Regional Differences

29:11 • 2min

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Consumer Spend, Unit Volume, and CPG Pressure

31:31 • 3min

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Copart: Salvage Auction Moat Under Pressure

34:13 • 4min

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Library of Mistakes: Humility in Finance

38:30 • 4min

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Taxonomy of Financial Mistakes

42:03 • 4min

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Intellectual Humility in Investing

46:23 • 7min

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ESG, Moats, and Stewardship

53:20 • 4min

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Flyover Consumer Examples and Culture

• Mentioned in 265 episodes

The Wealth of Nations

Adam Smith

Published in 1776, 'The Wealth of Nations' is Adam Smith's magnum opus that laid the groundwork for modern economics. The book critiques mercantilist economic theories and introduces the concept of the 'invisible hand,' which describes how individual self-interest leads to societal benefit. It emphasizes the division of labor, the accumulation of capital, and the importance of free markets. Smith argues that a nation's wealth is not measured by its gold and silver reserves but by the stream of goods and services it produces. The book also outlines the core functions of government, such as maintaining defense, enforcing civil law, and promoting education, while advocating for limited government intervention in market activities.

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• Mentioned in 98 episodes

The theory of moral sentiments

Adam Smith

Published in 1759, 'The Theory of Moral Sentiments' is Adam Smith's first major published work, based on his lectures at Glasgow University. The book argues that morality is driven by humanity's natural sociability and the need for approval from peers, rather than by rational calculation or innate moral sense. Smith introduces key concepts such as sympathy, the impartial spectator, and the invisible hand, which explain how individuals judge the conduct and character of themselves and others. The work delves into the emotional and social aspects of human behavior, highlighting the role of emotions like pity and compassion in shaping moral sentiments and behaviors.

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• Mentioned in 11 episodes

The Rebel Allocator

Jacob Taylor

The Rebel Allocator tells the story of Nick, a young man who encounters Francis Xavier ('Mr. X'), a billionaire with a chain of hamburger joints called Cootie Burger. Mr. X, who is terminally ill, mentors Nick on the principles of capital allocation, drawing heavily from the teachings of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. The book combines a fictional narrative with business lessons, making complex concepts more accessible and engaging for readers. It explores themes such as the importance of capital allocation, the balance between work and personal life, and the application of business philosophies in real-world scenarios.

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• Mentioned in 61 episodes

Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Dan Gardner

Philip E. Tetlock

Santiago Foz (argentino)

In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.

Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor.

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ABOUT THE PODCAST

Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.

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ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE

Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam. He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).

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