The Echo Chamber from Tortoise Shack A Government that isn’t interested in Governing
12 snips
Feb 4, 2026 
Harry McEvinson, operator of irishelectionprojections.com and Irish polling analyst, provides sharp commentary on steady post-election polls and Sinn Féin’s continuing lead. He explores the Social Democrats’ surprising rise, vote transfers and local by-election dynamics in Dublin Central. They also debate political disengagement, the government’s avoidance of action and the role of consultants in policymaking.
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Viability Drives Transfer Dynamics
- Perceived viability shapes transfers and election outcomes under PR-STV.
- As the Social Democrats look more viable, they may attract left-wing transfers away from Sinn Féin.
Dublin Central By-Election As A Test
- Dublin Central is a winnable seat for a non-government left candidate and has complex local dynamics.
- Harry flags the Social Democrats' candidate as strong but urges caution without polling data.
Many Voters Trust No Party On Housing
- A poll showed many voters trust no party to fix housing, signalling deep distrust.
- High non-trust undermines opposition claims to be the housing solution.