Open Book with Anthony Scaramucci America’s Economic Divide, Global Energy Crisis, AI Job Losses, Bitcoin’s Future
22 snips
Mar 11, 2026 
Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital and former Fortress partner, offers macro, crypto, and markets perspective. He talks oil shocks, Strait risks, and short-term price dynamics. He discusses a K-shaped recovery and dollar/debasement themes. He covers AI’s job disruption, competing large language models, and Bitcoin demand drivers like MicroStrategy.
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Trade Oil Around The Blow Off Top
- In geopolitical oil shocks, prices often spike then collapse; trade oil between $70 and $105 during the cycle.
- Novogratz recommends waiting for the blow-off top then positioning to buy as prices fall back toward $60–75.
Cut Rates Gradually If Jobs And Inflation Weaken
- If inflation is transitory from oil shocks and jobs weaken, cut rates gradually starting with 25 bps.
- Novogratz role-plays a Fed that signals a 25 bp cut and moves to 75 bp by year-end if labor data stays weak.
Dollar Strength Is Temporary During Crises
- The dollar rallies in crisis but can weaken quickly once the shock fades.
- Novogratz predicts a post-crisis dollar sell-off as investors rebalance away from the US and euro moves back up.