Economy Watch David Mahon: China's post-Covid hangover, NZ flirting with joining AUKUS & more
China's economy remains mired in a post-Covid hangover like much of the rest of the world, but the technology, catering and tourism sectors are encouraging, according to David Mahon.
Mahon, the Beijing-based Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management, spoke to interest.co.nz in the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast.
The relative weakness of the Chinese economy, compared to its rapid expansion of recent decades, amid ongoing concerns about the property market and deflation, has been making international headlines. Mahon says some of what's going on isn't dissimilar to elsewhere in the world.
"We're going through a period of the post-Covid hangover that the whole world is still going through. We talk about China in isolation. Look at global consumption, look at New Zealand growth rates. They're not great. This is normal. The pandemic was huge. Even the Second World War didn't touch every human being on the planet with the same hand of fear, with the same uncertainty. So I think we need to be patient with ourselves, we need to be patient with the global economy and therefore a little bit with the Chinese economy," Mahon said.
"The isolation, the closure of China for three years had a huge impact. And there are losses and there are contradictions in the system that have been highlighted that really are a challenge to the Government."
Nonetheless he suggests the technology sector is a good engine for the Chinese economy.
"And also given the fact that China is being isolated on technology, there is a strategic reason why China will push that further. So I can see some strong engines. The other one is catering and tourism. Catering is very good for New Zealand because it means that Fonterra will be selling its products to the food services sector," said Mahon.
I also asked Mahon about New Zealand's new government flirting with joining AUKUS, the Australia-United States-United Kingdom security partnership, and what sort of impact this could have on NZ's relationship with China including our trade relationship. This issue gathered momentum after Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins met with their Australian counterparts in early February.
"If New Zealand were to join AUKUS in any form, whether it was phase one or two, it would have an impact, definitely, and it would be a major sign of a change in [NZ] policy of perhaps two generations. So I think we have to wait to see what [Prime Minister] Christopher Luxon says rather than what Winston Peters and Judith Collins say," said Mahon.
In the podcast Mahon talks further about the NZ-China relationship, the China-US relationship, the Chinese economy, tensions over Taiwan, the Xinjiang region and the Uyghurs, President Xi Jinping's power, Chinese consumers, the middle class, the potential for more monetary and/or fiscal stimulus in China and more.