The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Trump, Greenland, and the International Order
Jan 29, 2026
John Drennan, Brussels-based NATO expert, and Ariane Tabatabai, international security and geopolitics analyst, unpack the Greenland crisis and its fallout. They trace how tensions de-escalated, whether they could return, and how Europe is hedging. They explore NATO’s value to the U.S., political pressures on alliance leadership, and how Russia and China exploit fractures in the Western order.
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Self-Inflicted NATO Crisis
- The Greenland crisis was largely self-inflicted and could have been resolved within existing alliance channels.
- The administration's rhetoric and threats rattled allies and created lasting uncertainty about future U.S. behavior.
Allied Trust Is Corroding
- European publics and governments are internalizing President Trump's pattern of undermining allies as a persistent risk.
- That erosion of trust is pushing NATO members to view the U.S. as an unreliable, sometimes adversarial, partner.
Europe Will Hedge, Not Fold
- Europeans will hedge rather than abruptly detach because they still depend on U.S. capabilities like extended deterrence.
- But they will diversify suppliers, boost spending, and explore independent options over time.