FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 16 Feb 2026
Feb 15, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist known for macro analysis, explains the week's big data: labour force figures, wages and RBA policy. Short takes on why monthly employment can jump around. Quick clarity on what the Wage Price Index actually measures. Looks at real wages, productivity and what would (and would not) spark a wage-price spiral.
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Monthly Jobs Data Is Volatile
- Monthly employment figures are highly volatile and often bounce around month-to-month.
- A single large jump like +65,000 can be followed by a correction, so look at trends not one month.
Wage Price Index Measures Like‑For‑Like Wages
- The Wage Price Index measures like-for-like wage changes for the same job, excluding promotions or job changes.
- It captures base wage pressure relevant for inflation rather than overall household income gains.
Monitor WPI Jumps For RBA Signals
- Watch the quarterly WPI jump; a 1.0% quarterly rise (annual ~3.6%) would raise RBA concern.
- Treat anything around 3.3–3.5% annually as benign but monitor productivity alongside wages.