The Big Story What's at stake for Poilievre ahead his leadership review?
Jan 29, 2026
Jamie Ellerton, political strategist and principal at Conaptus, offers insider analysis of Conservative Party dynamics. He breaks down what Calgary’s leadership review will decide. He explains why certain vote thresholds matter and why Poilievre must broaden appeal beyond the base. He outlines the work needed to present a more collaborative, government-ready image and regroup before the next election.
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Leadership Review Is Largely Procedural
- The Conservative leadership review is a delegate-level formality where local party members vote riding-by-riding.
- Jamie Ellerton expects Pierre Poilievre to pass with a large margin and sees no organized challenger this weekend.
Numbers Matter Beyond The Threshold
- Poilievre likely needs more than the bare majority to avoid damaging perceptions; an upper-60s percentage would be safer politically.
- Ellerton says anything north of mid-60s is expected, but higher numbers reduce internal and media friction.
Base Strength, National Polarization
- Poilievre's base strongly supports him while the rest of Canada finds him polarizing.
- The core challenge is converting base enthusiasm into broader appeal without alienating supporters.