Radio Atlantic Why Pick a Fight With Iran Now?
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Feb 26, 2026 
Tom Nichols, a foreign-policy analyst focused on strategy and military affairs, and Nancy Youssef, a national security reporter with Middle East on-the-ground expertise, discuss U.S. planning and posture toward Iran. They cover Geneva negotiation priorities, limits of strikes on nuclear programs, the scale and purpose of the U.S. military buildup, munitions and alliance constraints, and risks of escalation and regime-change aims.
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Buildup Is Big But Not 2003 Scale
- Current U.S. force posture is large but smaller than 2003 Iraq: two carriers, 120+ aircraft, ~40,000 troops versus five carriers and 170,000 troops then.
- Youssef emphasizes scale matters for feasible missions like regime removal.
Crisis Timing Linked To Crushed Protests
- The administration likely perceived an opening after Iran's December 2025 protests, sending carriers amid hopes the regime was vulnerable.
- Youssef notes protests were crushed with heavy casualties, undermining any quick collapse scenario.
Strikes Would Likely Be A U.S.-Only Military Effort
- The U.S. appears to lack regional bases willing to host combat flights and hasn't built an allied military coalition for strikes.
- Gulf partners privately refuse basing due to fear of Iranian retaliation, leaving operations largely U.S.-only.