The HC Commodities Podcast The Iran War: the view from CERA Week with Nick Kumleben
Mar 27, 2026
Nick Kumleben, macro and commodities analyst at Greenmantle, offers a sharp take from CERA Week. He describes the tense market mood, short-term supply strains on diesel and jet fuel, and limits of strategic petroleum releases. He explores sanctions erosion, deglobalization, energy security driving clean tech, and the risk of wider escalation and food shocks.
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Examples Where Rhetoric Became Action
- Kumleben contrasted Trump actions in Russia, Venezuela and Iran to show he can follow through unpredictably.
- He used past Venezuela and June Iran statements as examples where rhetoric translated into action.
Energy Security Boosts Battery Makers
- Geopolitical shocks accelerate investment in batteries and renewables as nations pursue energy security.
- Kumleben highlighted Chinese battery makers and rising market caps as beneficiaries of the crisis-driven transition.
Markets Are Becoming Fragmented And Insider Driven
- Globalisation and information symmetry peaked recently; sanctions and fractured markets now create gradations of insiders.
- Kumleben argued markets find workarounds and private actors may no longer have first-mover informational advantage.