On The Market These High-Inventory Markets Could “Swing Up” in the Next Cycle
Apr 14, 2026
Lance Lambert, founder of ResiClub and former real estate editor, brings data-driven housing market analysis. He discusses how high-inventory, low-migration markets might rebound when migration cycles restart. He covers the role of inventory, a potential catalyst for deeper risk, which states could bounce back fastest, and where investors may find motivated sellers.
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Housing Is Soft But Not A GFC Replay
- U.S. housing sits in the bottom 25th percentile historically for market strength, similar to the early 1990s rather than the GFC peak collapse.
- Lance compares current weakness to 1990–92 and warns further activity decline in builders could push broader recessionary impacts.
Oil Shock Could Create A Housing Downturn
- A plausible catalyst for a deeper housing downturn is an energy shock that spikes oil prices and produces job losses without commensurate rate easing.
- Lance warns such inflationary supply shocks could prevent mortgage-rate relief and worsen bottom-tier housing distress.
Migration Pullback Is Cyclical Not Permanent
- Net domestic and international migration surged post-pandemic but have largely stalled; these flows are cyclical and likely to rebound later.
- Lance expects Texas and Florida migration to swing back up from current lows, creating future demand upside.
