Insights Now Alternative Realities: Geopolitics, private credit and portfolio construction
Mar 27, 2026
Aaron Hussain, a London-based macro strategist focused on energy, inflation and private credit. Kerry Craig, a Melbourne-based strategist focused on Asian markets, shipping and real assets. They discuss shifting shipping and Asian energy flows. They cover Europe’s energy vulnerabilities and inflation contrasts. They explore private credit dynamics, investor selectivity, semi-liquid fund mechanics, and trends in private equity and defense VC.
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AI CapEx Is Propping Up Asian Trade
- AI investment is a structural support for Asian trade and manufacturing, especially semiconductors in Taiwan and memory in Korea.
- Kerry Craig cites $660 billion hyperscaler CapEx with roughly half flowing into the AI supply chain across Asia, sustaining transport demand.
Europe Remains Vulnerable But Conditions Differ From 2022
- Europe is more sensitive to energy shocks because it imports most oil and a large share of LNG, which affects inflation and growth.
- Aaron Hussain argues current inflation is lower than in 2022 and second-round wage effects are less likely due to weaker labor markets.
Use Alternatives To Hedge Inflation Risk
- Protect portfolios from inflation shocks by increasing allocations to alternative assets that historically outperformed during 2022.
- Aaron Hussain recommends bonds for recession risk and alternatives (real assets) for inflation protection based on past performance.