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Anthropic co-founder on quitting OpenAI, AGI predictions, $100M talent wars, 20% unemployment, and the nightmare scenarios keeping him up at night | Ben Mann

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Jul 20, 2025

Guest

Ben Mann

Ben Mann, co-founder of Anthropic and former GPT-3 architect at OpenAI, dives into the world of AI's rapid growth and ethical dilemmas. He reveals the challenges of attracting top talent amid fierce competition, spotlighting Meta's staggering offers. Ben predicts that AGI may emerge as soon as 2027-2028, but warns of a looming 20% unemployment rate. He shares his concerns over AI's existential threats and why a focus on safety and human alignment is crucial, while also teaching his kids alternative skills instead of traditional academics.

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Episode notes

Transparency Builds AI Safety Trust

AI risks range from minor harms to extinction-level events, requiring transparency and regulation.
Anthropic openly publishes model failures to build trust with policymakers and improve safety.

Small Risk, Huge Stakes

Even a small chance of AI existential risk warrants utmost caution and effort.
Aligning superintelligence must be addressed well ahead of its arrival.

Robot Intelligence Approaching Soon

Hardware capabilities like humanoid robots are ready; intelligence is the remaining challenge.
Robot intelligence combined with AI advancements may arrive soon, making physical risks imminent.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Navigating Talent Wars and Ethical Implications in AI Development

01:35 • 5min

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AI's Economic Impact and Workforce Transformation

06:26 • 8min

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The Exponential Impact of AI on Employment

14:49 • 3min

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Navigating the AI-Driven Future

17:45 • 15min

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Navigating AI Safety and Human Values

33:15 • 6min

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Transparency and Caution in AI Development

39:03 • 18min

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Navigating the AI Landscape: Insights and Innovations

57:04 • 18min

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In 'The Hacker and the State,' Ben Buchanan provides an in-depth look at how nation-states—including the U.S. , China, Russia, North Korea, and Britain—use cyber operations to spy, sabotage, and influence one another in a relentless struggle for dominance. The book moves beyond sensationalized fears of cyberwar to examine the real, pervasive, and often hidden ways that hacking has transformed statecraft and spycraft. Buchanan draws on insider interviews, declassified documents, and forensic analysis to explain the tactics, motivations, and consequences of state-sponsored cyberattacks, from undersea cable taps and election interference to infrastructure sabotage and billion-dollar heists. Accessible to both technical and non-technical readers, the book offers a nuanced understanding of the new normal in global politics, where the nation that hacks best may triumph.

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The Alignment Problem

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Good Strategy/Bad Strategy

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In *Good Strategy/Bad Strategy*, Richard Rumelt clarifies the distinction between effective and ineffective strategies. He argues that a good strategy is a specific and coherent response to overcoming obstacles, harnessing power where it will have the greatest effect. Rumelt debunks elements of 'bad strategy' such as equating goals, motivational slogans, and financial targets with actual strategy. He introduces the 'kernel' of strategy, which includes a diagnosis of the challenge, a guiding policy, and coherent action. The book uses diverse examples from business, nonprofit, and military contexts to illustrate these concepts and emphasizes the importance of analytical rigor and focused effort in strategy development.

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Superintelligence

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Nick Bostrom

In this book, Nick Bostrom delves into the implications of creating superintelligence, which could surpass human intelligence in all domains. He discusses the potential dangers, such as the loss of human control over such powerful entities, and presents various strategies to ensure that superintelligences align with human values. The book examines the 'AI control problem' and the need to endow future machine intelligence with positive values to prevent existential risks.

Benjamin Mann is a co-founder of Anthropic, an AI startup dedicated to building aligned, safety-first AI systems. Prior to Anthropic, Ben was one of the architects of GPT-3 at OpenAI. He left OpenAI driven by the mission to ensure that AI benefits humanity. In this episode, Ben opens up about the accelerating progress in AI and the urgent need to steer it responsibly.

In this conversation, we discuss:

1. The inside story of leaving OpenAI with the entire safety team to start Anthropic

2. How Meta’s $100M offers reveal the true market price of top AI talent

3. Why AI progress is still accelerating (not plateauing), and how most people misjudge the exponential

4. Ben’s “economic Turing test” for knowing when we’ve achieved AGI—and why it’s likely coming by 2027-2028

5. Why he believes 20% unemployment is inevitable

6. The AI nightmare scenarios that concern him most—and how he believes we can still avoid them

7. How focusing on AI safety created Claude’s beloved personality

8. What three skills he’s teaching his kids instead of traditional academics

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Transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropic-co-founder-benjamin-mann

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My biggest takeaways (for paid newsletter subscribers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/i/168107911/my-biggest-takeaways-from-this-conversation

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Where to find Ben Mann:

• X: https://x.com/8enmann

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjamin-mann/

• Website: https://benjmann.net/

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Where to find Lenny:

• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com

• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/

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In this episode, we cover:

(00:00) Introduction to Benjamin

(04:43) The AI talent war

(06:28) AI progress and scaling laws

(10:50) Defining AGI and the economic Turing test

(12:26) The impact of AI on jobs

(17:45) Preparing for an AI future

(24:05) Founding Anthropic

(27:06) Balancing AI safety and progress

(29:10) Constitutional AI and model alignment

(34:21) The importance of AI safety

(43:40) The risks of autonomous agents

(45:40) Forecasting superintelligence

(48:36) How hard is it to align AI?

(53:19) Reinforcement learning from AI feedback (RLAIF)

(57:03) AI's biggest bottlenecks

(01:00:11) Personal reflections on responsibilities

(01:02:36) Anthropic’s growth and innovations

(01:07:48) Lightning round and final thoughts

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Referenced:

• Dario Amodei on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dario-amodei-3934934/

• Anthropic CEO: AI Could Wipe Out 50% of Entry-Level White Collar Jobs: https://www.marketingaiinstitute.com/blog/dario-amodei-ai-entry-level-jobs

• Alexa+: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCCNHWV5

• Azure: https://azure.microsoft.com/

• Sam Altman on X: https://x.com/sama

• Opus 3: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-family

• Claude’s Constitution: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claudes-constitution

• Greg Brockman on X: https://x.com/gdb

• Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropics-responsible-scaling-policy

• Agentic Misalignment: How LLMs could be insider threats: https://www.anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment

• Anthropic’s CPO on what comes next | Mike Krieger (co-founder of Instagram): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-cpo-heres-what-comes-next

• AI prompt engineering in 2025: What works and what doesn’t | Sander Schulhoff (Learn Prompting, HackAPrompt): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/ai-prompt-engineering-in-2025-sander-schulhoff

• Unitree: https://www.unitree.com/

• Arthur C. Clarke: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke

• How Reinforcement Learning from AI Feedback Works: https://www.assemblyai.com/blog/how-reinforcement-learning-from-ai-feedback-works

• RLHF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback

• Jared Kaplan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jared-kaplan-645843213/

• Moore’s law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

• Machine Intelligence Research Institute: https://intelligence.org/

• Raph Lee on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raphaeltlee/

• “The Last Question”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Question

• Beth Barnes on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabethmbarnes/

• “The Last Question”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Question

• Good Strategy, Bad Strategy | Richard Rumelt: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/good-strategy-bad-strategy-richard

• Pantheon on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81937398

• Ted Lasso on AppleTV+: https://tv.apple.com/us/show/ted-lasso/umc.cmc.vtoh0mn0xn7t3c643xqonfzy

• Kurzgesagt—In a Nutshell: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsXVk37bltHxD1rDPwtNM8Q

• 5 tips to poop like a champion: https://8enmann.medium.com/5-tips-to-poop-like-a-champion-3292481a9651

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Recommended books:

• Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies: https://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0198739834

• The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics: https://www.amazon.com/Hacker-State-Attacks-Normal-Geopolitics/dp/0674987551

• Replacing Guilt: Minding Our Way: https://www.amazon.com/Replacing-Guilt-Minding-Our-Way/dp/B086FTSB3Q

• Good Strategy/Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters: https://www.amazon.com/Good-Strategy-Bad-Difference-Matters/dp/0307886239

• The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values: https://www.amazon.com/Alignment-Problem-Machine-Learning-Values/dp/0393635821

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Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.

Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.

To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com

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