The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 339. From Data Centers to Derivatives: The 4 Ds of 2025 with Jeffrey Berenbaum of Citi Research
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Jul 8, 2025 Jeffrey Berenbaum, Director and Head of CMBS Strategy at Citi Research, shares valuable insights from his extensive experience in financing markets. He discusses the challenges faced by retail and industrial sectors amid economic uncertainty, while highlighting the resilience of multifamily housing due to persistent shortages. Jeffrey introduces his intriguing '4 Ds' for 2025: data centers, government efficiency, the dollar, and derivatives. The conversation also covers shifts in lending conditions and the crucial role of consumer health data.
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Mortgage REITs Display Cautious Optimism
- Mortgage REITs showed bullishness and readiness to lend before tariff uncertainties arose.
- Lending focus was bullish on multifamily and cautious but interested in retail sectors.
Tariffs Cause CRE Market Uncertainty
- Tariff uncertainty is a major driver of economic and CRE market volatility.
- Multifamily benefits from housing shortages and limited new construction despite economic concerns.
Multifamily Stands Out Among Sectors
- Multifamily remains the most resilient property sector due to housing shortages and rising costs.
- Retail and industrial face challenges from tariffs and uncertain demand, with mixed medium-term outlooks.