Everybody's Business The Second Coming of Prediction Markets, Live at On Air Fest with Pushkin's Business History
Feb 27, 2026
Jacob Goldstein, co-host of Business History, brings historical perspective on betting markets. Robert Smith, co-host of Business History, traces past moral panics and policy responses. They discuss the rise of modern platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. They explore live betting mechanics, controversial markets, insider risks, and whether financializing everything will spark backlash.
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Prediction Markets Financialize Opinions
- Prediction markets now price a huge range of events from politics to Jerome Powell's exact words, turning opinions into tradable assets.
- Max Chafkin describes markets where a 10¢ contract pays $1 if a candidate wins and odds shift during live events like press conferences.
Use Markets To Hedge Hard To Insure Risks
- Use prediction markets as a public signal to hedge or surface private information when direct data is scarce.
- Tariq Mansour of Kalshi pitches 'financialize everything' and weather contracts as flood-insurance hedges.
How A Logistics Clue Made A Big Bet Pay Off
- Domer, a Polymarket whale, turned early logistics sleuthing into a big payoff by spotting an Alaska flight that hinted at Sarah Palin.
- He bet $1,000 at 25:1 in 2008 and walked away with $25,000, framing trading as homework.