The Daily Signal Victor Davis Hanson: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Iran War Outcomes
Mar 10, 2026
A sharp look at three possible endgames for conflict with Iran. Discussion of a full collapse of the theocracy and a Western-backed transition. Consideration of a Venezuela-style replacement with a secular dissident. Warning about the risks of crippling Iran then walking away as a policy choice.
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Three Distinct Iran Endgames
- Victor Davis Hanson outlines three distinct endgames for a U.S. campaign against Iran, each with different political and regional consequences.
- The optimal path is full demilitarization plus a transitory exile-led coalition, leading to elections and strict nonproliferation oversight.
Midterm Clock Shapes Strategy Urgency
- Hanson links the timeline and political pressure for a decisive outcome to the U.S. midterm elections and economic impacts like oil prices.
- He warns the administration must lower tensions and pivot back to the economy before the November midterms to affect voter judgment.
Use Military Pressure To Enable Transitional Government
- Do pursue intense military pressure to collapse Iran's military infrastructure to enable a popular uprising and interim coalition government.
- Hanson argues destroying leadership, missiles, and command can prompt demonstrators and exiles to form a transitory government supervised by outside powers.