Sea Control Sea Control 597: Iran Escalation Scenario
Mar 4, 2026
Dr. Treston Wheat, a geopolitical risk and red teaming expert and adjunct professor at Georgetown, and Ross Hill, founder of Insight Forward with 15+ years in public and private intelligence, discuss an Iran escalation scenario. They explain how scenarios are built and red teamed. They focus on maritime risks in the Straits of Hormuz, economic and insurance impacts, and corporate evacuation and operational challenges.
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Scenario Planning Is About Plausible Pathways
- Scenario planning focuses on plausibility, not prediction, to help organisations prepare for realistic geopolitical pathways.
- Ross Hill and Treston Wheat narrow broad questions into business-focused scenarios linking geopolitical events to corporate impacts like markets and operations.
Use War Gaming To Build Actionable Scenarios
- Use threat ideation and war-gaming to map decision pathways rather than trying to forecast exact outcomes.
- Treston Wheat recommends building realistic scenarios between extremes (not nuclear strikes or only statements) to create useful corporate plans.
Gulf Tensions Immediately Rattle Global Markets
- A Gulf conflict rapidly transmits to global financial markets, not just energy markets, via instant trading algorithms and futures.
- Treston Wheat noted Brent crude spiked ~$10 and bond yields and central bank rate expectations shifted within days.