The Big Story Travel advisories, suspended flights: what's happening in Cuba?
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Feb 13, 2026 Mark Entwistle, former Canadian ambassador to Cuba and Munk School fellow, brings decades of Cuban diplomacy experience. He breaks down the causes of the current fuel and supply crisis. He analyzes U.S. policy motives and the legal mechanics of oil cutoffs. He considers Cuba’s resilience, collapse scenarios, and Canada’s tight diplomatic choices and humanitarian options.
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Cuba's Deep Survival Capacity
- Cuba has long-built survival systems that let it ration electricity and prioritize hospitals, schools and goods transport during shortages.
- Mark Entwistle warns this crisis is exponentially worse than past ones despite Cuba's resilience.
Oil Cutoff Is Political Leverage
- The Trump administration aims to strangle Cuba partly via a cut-off of Venezuelan oil as a means to topple the government.
- Entwistle notes Cuba's Venezuelan oil imports have fallen from ~100,000 to ~25,000 barrels a day, reducing but not eliminating dependence.
Tariffs As A De Facto Blockade
- The U.S. is threatening third-party suppliers with tariffs to prevent them selling oil to Cuba, effectively creating a blockade.
- Entwistle asserts such a blockade constitutes economic warfare and sharply raises the stakes.