Central banks take a wait-and-see approach

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy markets could swing on any headline, but at the same time we’re mindful that geopolitical shocks historically tend to cause short-lived market turbulence.”

A series of policy decisions from central banks last week meanwhile suggested that they will be keeping an eye on economic data before making any moves to cut rates. “Overall, it seems fair to say that central banks are likely to stay cautious for a while yet”, Markus says. In the week ahead, he says he’ll be watching for European data on the mood among consumers, and for the results of Treasury auctions in the US.

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