The Joe Walker Podcast Peter Turchin — Why Societies Fall Apart (And Why the US May Be Next)
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Aug 30, 2023 
Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of cliodynamics, discusses societal integration and disintegration, US political instability predictions, predictability of future events, using statistical patterns to predict societal trends, height as an indicator of biological wellbeing, rise of cancel culture due to elite overproduction, and fragility of complex societies.
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Simultaneous Discoveries
- The invention of calculus and the discovery of genes happened nearly simultaneously by multiple individuals.
- This suggests discoveries are driven by collective progress rather than individual genius, making technological advancement somewhat predictable.
Group Dynamics
- Cliodynamics focuses on group-level dynamics, where individual actions often get buffered.
- Individual free will matters less at macro scales unless a person influences large groups, creating macro-level results.
Contingency and WWI
- World War I, a contingent event, set the stage for structural forces leading to World War II.
- Cliodynamics can incorporate contingencies by analyzing trajectories contingent on unpredictable events.