KQED's Forum Republicans Are Winning the Redistricting War
May 13, 2026
Nick Corasaniti, NYT reporter on national politics; Kareem Crayton, Brennan Center redistricting and voting-rights lawyer; Erin Covey, Cook Political Report House analyst. They discuss recent court rulings and maps that shifted momentum, how the Supreme Court changed voting-rights law, mid-decade redistricting tactics, likely seat swings, and what this means for future maps and reform.
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Supreme Court Raised Bar For Race Claims
- The Supreme Court's decision in the Louisiana case raised the burden on racial gerrymandering claims by requiring proof of intent, weakening Section 2 protections.
- Kareem Crayton said that ruling effectively remade Section 2 and makes bringing successful claims near-impossible, enabling partisan covers for race-based effects.
Texas Sparked Mid-Decade Redistricting Push
- The mid-decade redistricting push began in Texas, driven by the Trump White House as a deliberate political strategy to create safe Republican seats before the midterms.
- Nick Corasaniti described Texas as the 'big bang' that encouraged other Republican-led states to redraw maps mid-cycle.
Redistricting Shifts Seats But Not National Tide
- Despite recent Republican map wins, national political fundamentals still favor Democrats to win the House; redistricting might net Republicans only a modest seat gain.
- Erin Covey estimated Republicans could pad a three-seat majority by maybe a half-dozen to a dozen seats, but Democrats remain likely to flip the House in the median scenario.