FDD's Foreign Podicy

The New Sultanate

Apr 10, 2026
Jonathan Schanzer, FDD executive director and longtime Turkey watcher, and Sinan Ciddi, FDD senior fellow and Turkey program director, discuss Turkey’s transformation under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. They trace the rise of sultanistic rule, Islamist and neo‑Ottoman influences, shifts in foreign policy, NATO tensions, regional military reach, and Turkey’s posture in the Iran‑Israel war.
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ANECDOTE

Atatürk Portrait Symbolized Early Hope For Turkey

  • Cliff May recalls visiting Turkey after 9/11 and receiving an Atatürk portrait as a gift.
  • The anecdote underscores early optimism about Turkey as a secular, NATO, pro‑Western Muslim-majority democracy.
INSIGHT

Turkey Filling The Regional Power Vacuum

  • Turkey is replacing Iran as a regional power broker by building military, political, and proxy footprints across the Middle East and Africa.
  • Jonathan Schanzer maps Turkish influence to Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon, Syria, Qatar, Libya, Somalia, Cyprus, and paramilitary firms like Sadat.
INSIGHT

Turkey Positioning As Sunni Counterweight Backed By Qatar

  • Erdoğan frames Turkey as the Sunni representative against Iran's Shiite influence, courting Gulf money and political partners like Qatar.
  • Jonathan Schanzer links Turkey's Sunni Muslim Brotherhood‑aligned messaging to Qatari financial backing since the Arab Spring.
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