School of War Ep 272: Beatrice Heuser on Why Leaders Make Bad Decisions
22 snips
Feb 6, 2026 Beatrice Heuser, distinguished professor and author of Flawed Strategy, brings strategic studies and international relations expertise. She discusses how economic models shaped thinking, the difference between rationality and logic, mirror imaging rival motives, cultural and textual study over broad theory, and how denial and ignored intelligence produce catastrophic decisions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Logical Actions From Irrational Premises
- Beatrice Heuser distinguishes rationality from logic: actors can hold irrational premises yet act logically on them.
- Understanding an opponent requires grasping their premises, not assuming Western rationality applies to all.
Predicting Actions By Taking Premises Seriously
- Heuser uses Putin's invasion of Ukraine to show actions logical within a different value system prioritizing glory and identity.
- Analysts who took those premises seriously correctly predicted the invasion.
Dive Deep Into Adversary Cultures
- Study particular adversaries deeply: read their literature, speeches, and historical narratives to grasp their premises.
- Combine cultural understanding with geography and economics rather than relying on monocausal IR theories.
