2026 Startup Predictions: Why This Year Changes Everything (Bitcoin, IPOs & The Great Divide)

The startup world is splitting into two radically different realities - and 2026 will be the year this divide becomes impossible to ignore. On this episode of the 1st10 Podcast, Boris grades his 2025 forecasts (4.5/5 - not bad!), revealing which bets paid off and where he missed the mark on Bitcoin's meteoric rise. But the real focus is forward: FIVE bold predictions for 2026 that cover everything from crypto's regulatory renaissance and the coming IPO tsunami to a troubling "tale of two cities" emerging between those building the AI-powered future and those struggling to break in. Tune in to hear Boris share incredibly insightful takes that explain:Why last year's "wild guesses" suddenly look obvious in hindsightThe quiet shift that makes this moment historically differentA comeback story most people are calling too earlyWhy talent, not ideas, becomes the real bottleneckHow "efficiency" and "hiring booms" can both be trueThe emergence of TWO Americas - the AIs and The AIn'tsWhether you're a founder chasing funding, an engineer choosing your path, or simply trying to understand where the tech world is headed, this episode cuts through the hype to reveal what's really at stake in 2026.Chapters00:00 Introductions02:18 Grading the 2025 Crystal Ball05:04 When AI Agents Became Non-Negotiable08:58 The Meme That Accidentally Explained the Job Market12:28 A Framework That Suddenly Explains Everything14:20 Prediction #1: A Controversial Bet. (Again.)19:06 Prediction #2: "Floodgates Opening..."21:10 Prediction #3: A Wave of... Consolidation?27:05 Prediction #4: Hiring Will... Boom?!30:02 Prediction #5: The Tale of Two Cities35:10 Is the American Dream Really Over?Quotes:"This year, every single company that's building in the AI space needs their engineers to have agentic development experience. So it's crazy how, in just one year, the world went from, 'No one needs to know how to do this' to 'Everyone needs to know how to do this.'" - Boris Epstein (06:31)"I get it, Stripe. But at the same time think of the public, think of the people! The people want to be in on your success. And that's what getting to go public provides for the actual public. And so do it for the people, Stripe!" - Boris Epstein (20:46)"It's very easy to see today that the future is being built NOT. AT. FAANG. Right? And so the episode really just talks about the important choice that an engineer has to make and it is: 'Do they want to be a part of the future?' Or, 'do they want a very cushy compensation and work-life package?'" - Boris Epstein (26:33)Follow Us On:Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/1st10podcast Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/7e8ec9af-f38c-4cd9-8c68-1c1dd4516b 27/1st10-podcastApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1st10-podcast/id1760411207 Podcast: https://www.1st10.com/podcast RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/f951319c/podcast/rss YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@1st10podcast Connect with usWebsite: www.1st10.comPodcast: www.1st10.com/podcast Twitter www.x.com/1st10engineersLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/1st10/YouTube: www.youtube.com/@1st10podcast Episodes Referenced:- S3E01 feat. Philip Su: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWtcGUJJgOE- S3E03 feat. Daniel Rock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUCYRa6YqDc- S3E04 feat. Sara Ali: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6ZEHOGbSjk- S3E09 feat. Anastasios Angelopoulos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPoqP5fiqYoSources:- 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise | Menlo Ventures - https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise/- The State of AI: Global Survey 2025 | McKinsey - https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai- Rise | Top Global Hiring Trends for Startups (2025 Data) - https://www.riseworks.io/blog/top-global-hiring-trends-for-startupsMusic by Roman Senyk from PixabayProducer: Shrikant Joshi