Financial Sense Newshour Robert Rapier: “I’ve warned of this for years; we’re now in a nightmare scenario”
Mar 12, 2026
Robert Rapier, energy analyst focused on oil, gas, and geopolitics. He warns the Strait of Hormuz risks could push oil to $150–$200. He breaks down drones, mines and tanker dangers. He covers potential ground assaults, winners and losers like China and Russia, and how LNG, fertilizer and trade flows could be disrupted.
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Strait Closure Can Send Oil To $200
- Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is more than a temporary spike and can credibly push oil toward $200 a barrel.
- Robert Rapier notes ~20 million barrels/day transited Hormuz and SPR releases can't match that flow or duration, so prices would stay elevated.
Drones And Geography Make Transit Perilous
- Iran's tactics focus on disruption not full blockade, making transit dangerous with drones and occasional strikes.
- Rapier explains mountainous coastlines let Iran occupy chokepoints and intermittently bomb or drone ships to deter passage.
Ground Invasion Could Worsen Strait Disruption
- Prolonged disruption increases pressure for a ground invasion to seize control of Hormuz, which itself would keep traffic closed.
- Rapier argues military action to secure the strait would be massive and still prevent immediate resumption of tanker traffic.