The Compound and Friends

Hottest Stocks of the Year, Nvidia Tops Out, Predicting Recessions With Nick and Jessica

20 snips
Jun 25, 2024
Guest
Nick Colas
Guest
Jessica Rabe
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe from DataTrek Research discuss market misconceptions, Nvidia's performance, energy stocks, the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, and more. They explore recessions, market dynamics, and trading patterns, touching on Geneva trips, market analysis for 2024, stock growth, and Nvidia's potential corrections. Insights on stock trends, real estate performance, and wealth management wrap up the episode.
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ANECDOTE

Geneva Trip: Skydiving And Watches

  • Jessica Rabe described skydiving near Geneva and visiting the Patek Philippe Museum while meeting clients.
  • The trip combined leisure and intensive institutional client meetings in Geneva.
INSIGHT

Nvidia Has Become Its Own Asset Class

  • NVIDIA's 30-day price-return correlation to the S&P fell to near zero, meaning it now behaves like its own asset class.
  • Historical low-correlation episodes are rare and produced mixed outcomes, so low correlation alone doesn't predict collapse.
ADVICE

Use The SOM Rule As A Labor-Market Signal

  • Watch the Somnath/Claudia Som 'SOM rule': a 0.5% rise in three-month unemployment vs 12-month low signals recession start.
  • Use the SOM rule as a simple momentum check on labor-market risk rather than dismissing unemployment as merely lagging.
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