WEALTHTRACK Looming Recession
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May 18, 2024 Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the looming recession in the US, highlighting how 19 states are already in a recession. The podcast explores the impact of rising consumer debt levels, declining confidence, and the differing perspectives with the Federal Reserve on the economy's state. Topics include the risks in the manufacturing sector, navigating economic challenges and market risks, and investing strategies for long-term wealth growth.
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Three Forces Point To A Hard Landing
- Nancy Lazar says recession risk is now high due to Fed lag effects, higher bond yields, and tightening bank lending standards.
- These three forces together historically always produced a hard landing, not a soft one.
Bifurcated Economy Masks Hidden Weakness
- The economy is bifurcated: high/middle-income households remain supported while low-income consumers face recession-like stress.
- Rising auto and credit-card delinquencies show distress concentrated among lower-income borrowers.
Watch Unemployment And Consumer Credit Closely
- Monitor the unemployment rate and middle-income consumer credit stress as the tipping point for recession risk.
- Watch rising unemployment above ~4% plus surging credit-card and auto delinquencies as clear danger signals.