THE DAILY BLAST with Greg Sargent Trump Outbursts over Oil Shock Go Off Rails as His Aides Quietly Panic
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Mar 13, 2026 Nicholas Grossman, international relations professor and analyst of U.S. foreign policy, breaks down the Iran-Hormuz oil shock. He explains the scale of the Strait closure and its global economic fallout. He discusses White House alarm, limits of Trump’s brinkmanship, who benefits from higher oil prices, and possible paths forward.
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Largest Oil Supply Shock Is Deeply Disruptive
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz is producing the largest global oil supply disruption in history and will cause widespread economic pain.
- Nicholas Grossman notes a 20% supply decline creates severe shortages, higher prices, and cascading effects across refinement, agriculture, and metallurgy.
Oil Production Cuts Create Long Restart Delays
- Short disruptions force producers to cut output and idled wells and refineries are costly and slow to restart.
- Grossman explains tankers stop, depots fill, producers reduce production, and rising energy costs raise inflation and cut consumer spending.
Enemy Always Gets A Vote In Coercive Strategy
- The crisis exposes limits to Trump's bullying strategy because Iran and other actors can shape outcomes.
- Grossman argues Iran controls access to the narrow waterway and can prolong disruption via threats to shipping and insurance.