Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 2nd, 2025
Sep 2, 2025
Economic analysts share insights on the S&P outlook amid US growth concerns. The discussion highlights China's global economic position, especially related to tariffs. Changes in customs regulations and their impact on logistics for smaller shippers are explored. Consumer confidence trends, especially among younger shoppers adapting to rising living costs, take the spotlight. Lastly, the implications of evolving trade dynamics in Southeast Asia reveal intriguing shifts in international relations.
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Yield Curve Steepening Signal
- Orlando expects a steeper yield curve: cuts short-term, higher long-term yields then a move toward 4% on the 10-year over 18 months.
- He sees a falling 10-year as supportive for consumer cyclicals and small caps.
China Gains From Shifting Alliances
- Leland Miller says China is not in an outright position of strength but is gaining as other countries distance from the U.S.
- He views China as an increasingly attractive option for countries seeking alternatives to the U.S.
China Offloads Overcapacity Regionally
- Miller argues China is dumping excess exports into Southeast Asia rather than forming tight trade blocs.
- He attributes rising exports to cheaper Chinese supply and weaker neighbors unable to push back.