Investor Hunter Craig sits down with University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton to break down the latest economic signals as the Federal Reserve heads into a pivotal meeting. With the S&P 500 topping 6,600 and Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the professor explains why he expects a 25-basis-point rate cut—and why a 50-point cut would create messy arbitrage opportunities.

They also cover:

The Fed’s balance-sheet strategy and how selling Treasuries actually raises rates
Slow U.S. GDP growth (1.3% annualized for the first half of 2025) and what it means for small businesses
Why declining consumer spending and speculative investment trends point toward a possible recession
The reality behind crypto and AI hype—and why valuations may tumble
Warren Buffett’s “five-minute fix” for the national deficit and why it may be too late

Professor Burton offers a candid view of the U.S. economy’s next moves and why caution may be the smartest investment.

Guest Bio

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and long-time faculty member at the University of Virginia. Known for his clear, incisive analysis of markets and monetary policy, Professor Burton has authored influential works on interest rates and investment strategy and is a frequent commentator on national economic issues.

Disclaimer

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

24. Markets, Rates, and Recession Signs: Professor Burton’s Fed Preview