The Red Line 135 - Is China the Kingmaker in Myanmar’s Civil War?
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Feb 10, 2026 Steve Ross, Stimson Center expert on Myanmar crises; Jason Tower, analyst of illicit economies; Derek Mitchell, former U.S. ambassador and Asia policy advisor; Zachary Abuza, Southeast Asia security scholar. They probe China’s evolving pressure after Operation 1027. They discuss shifting frontlines, narcotics-and-scam war economies, Beijing’s hedging to secure access, and bleak prospects for a unified Myanmar.
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Coordinate Regionally To Balance China
- Countries in the region should coordinate with each other and the U.S. to balance Chinese influence in Myanmar.
- Thailand, India, Japan and ASEAN need strategic vision and collective action rather than passive realism.
No Clear Path To Unified Governance
- No actor currently has a universal mandate to govern Myanmar; ethnic identities and mistrust prevent centralized authority.
- A political solution requires both junta mentality shift and resistance unity on principles of shared governance.
Stalled Authority Invites External Kingmakers
- As battlefield gains stalled, power struggles shifted externally; China emerged as the likeliest kingmaker but lacks a decisive path.
- Beijing prefers hedging to backstopping a single victor to preserve trade and borders.
