While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.”

Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.
Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%.

In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025.

They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Graham Norton Q&A