Our post-American future — what will the new world order look like?

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Jun 11, 2025

Hugh White, an Australian Defence Analyst and Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at ANU, addresses the shifting global power dynamics. He points out Australia's denial of the post-American landscape, urging a re-evaluation of alliances with nations like the U.S. and China. White highlights key events shaping this new order, including AUKUS and the Ukraine war, and warns against outdated defense strategies. He calls for a proactive approach to national security, reflecting on historical precedents as Australia navigates its future in a multipolar world.

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INSIGHT

Nuclear Risk Evident in Ukraine

Ukraine's progress and near victories showed Putin’s willingness to threaten nuclear weapon use.
The US cannot effectively deter Russia from nuclear escalation to protect Ukraine, a new global danger.

INSIGHT

Ukraine War: A Hard Strategic Choice

The West implicitly aimed to prolong Ukraine's war to drain Russian resources, causing great Ukrainian suffering.
Recognition grew of the need for a negotiated settlement with significant compromises, causing strategic tragedy.

INSIGHT

Trump's China View Is Economic, Not Strategic

Trump views China primarily as an economic rival, showing respect for Xi Jinping.
He lacks interest in defending US allies in Asia against China’s strategic ambitions.

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Defence analyst Hugh White says Australian leaders are in denial about how dramatically the world has changed, and need to get a grip on the deep, troubling forces propelling us into a new order of world power.

The balance of global power has changed dramatically over the last 25 years.

Even in the last five years, so much has happened - the pandemic, AUKUS, the war in Ukraine, a change of government here in Australia, Donald Trump's return to the White House, and all the tumult that has followed over the past six months.

According to defence analyst Hugh White, we are quickly heading into a post-American world.

However, Australia's defence assumptions remain based on a world which America built for us, where the United States is still a predominant world power that is heavily invested in Asia, and in us.

Hugh says political leaders in Australia are in denial about all of this, and need to get their heads out of the sand, accept the the world as we knew it is passing away, and redefine our relationships with powerful nations including the United States and China in order to make our way in this new world.

We've done it before, with the United Kingdom in the post-World War II years, and we need to do it again, Hugh says.

Further information

You can read Hugh White's essay, Hard New World: Our Post-American Future, in the June issue of the Quarterly Essay.

If you're interested in more episodes like this one, have a listen to Richard's recent conversation with Marcel Dirsus about tyrants and dictators on the ABC Listen App, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Find out more about the Conversations Live National Tour on the ABC website.

Conversations' Executive Producer is Nicola Harrison. This episode was produced by Jennifer Leake and presented by Richard Fidler.

This episode of Conversations explores nuclear war, Russian expansionism, Ukraine, Putin, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Los Angeles protests, riots, political landscape, Lauren Tomasi, ANZUS, Asia-Pacific, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, invasion, California, the decline of the West, National Guard, law enforcement, ICE.