The Dividend Cafe The Five Major Issues for Investors So Far in 2026
Mar 13, 2026
A tight rundown of five market forces reshaping 2026, from geopolitical shocks to sector rotations. They explore how conflict near the Strait of Hormuz could lift oil and unsettle trade. Tariff shifts, private credit dynamics, and AI valuation fatigue get sharp attention. A clear look at money moving into energy, utilities, staples, and industrials.
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Volatility From Iran Is Noise Not Direction
- Market volatility has spiked due to unpredictable outcomes from the Iran conflict rather than persistent directional movement.
- David L. Bahnsen notes 3,200 points of intraweek swings but only ~800 points net change, showing noise over signal for long-term investors.
Strait Of Hormuz Risk Could Push Oil Into The 90s
- Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the key economic risk because commercial actors, insurers, and shippers are avoiding the waterway.
- Bahnsen warns sustained oil above the low $80s into the $90s or $100s for weeks would compress consumer and investment activity materially.
Tariffs Are Offsetting Services Disinflation
- The post-tariff economy shows mixed signals: weaker GDP revisions and modest job growth alongside goods inflation from tariffs.
- Bahnsen says goods inflation is offsetting services disinflation, muting the expected fall from high twos to low twos in inflation.