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Mailbag, incl: What about Schrodinger’s Shares? December 7, 2025

14 snips
Dec 6, 2025
Dive into the world of probabilistic investing with discussions on Schrödinger’s Shares, where outcomes are treated as uncertain. Explore risks like corporate fraud and the average investor’s struggle against market returns. Unpack Bitcoin's volatile nature and why some see it as sound money, despite its tumultuous history. Discover the implications of US estate taxes for Australians investing in the USA. The hosts engage in lively debates about Bitcoin's adoption and the fairness of wealth distribution in the digital age.
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ADVICE

Plan For Estate Tax With Professional Help

  • If US estate tax could affect you, consult a tax lawyer and consider structures like SMSFs or selling assets before end of life.
  • Avoid assuming super or trusts automatically remove US estate tax without professional advice.
INSIGHT

Don't Overtrust Short Bitcoin Patterns

  • Short Bitcoin price cycles look compelling but the dataset is short and prone to spurious pattern-spotting.
  • Treat cycle claims skeptically because human brains detect patterns that may be coincidental.
ADVICE

Act Only When The Thesis Changes

  • If you buy an investment for a long-term thesis, ignore price noise and only act when the thesis changes.
  • Re-evaluate holdings when fundamentals or the investment case materially break.
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