GD POLITICS Democrats Are Cleaning Up In Special Elections
Sep 8, 2025
Nathaniel Rakich, a savvy data journalist and political analyst, teams up with Mary Radcliffe, a sharp data scientist and political analyst, to dissect the shifting political landscape. They dive into the implications of the upcoming special election in Virginia's 11th district and how Democrats are over-performing. The duo also unpacks job market trends and public sentiment regarding Trump's economic influence, while exploring dire population trends that could reshape the Electoral College for Democrats in the next decade.
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August Jobs Slowdown Arrives Amid BLS Turmoil
- Friday's jobs report showed a sharp hiring slowdown with only 22,000 jobs added in August.
- Those numbers come shortly after Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner, raising trust questions among observers.
Treat BLS Data As Reliable—For Now
- Continue to trust BLS numbers unless concrete methodological changes emerge.
- Monitor for revisions and leadership changes, but treat current reports as reliable for now.
Low Unemployment Masks Worker Pain
- Unemployment remains low (~4.3%) despite weak hiring because labor participation is falling.
- Long-term unemployment is rising, so worker pain exists even without mass layoffs yet.
