The Memo by Howard Marks

What's Going on in Private Credit?

219 snips
Apr 9, 2026
A tour of private credit’s rise from 1970s junk bonds to post-2008 direct lending. Discussion of how rapid capital inflows and competition compressed underwriting and yields. Examination of software-heavy loans, liquidity risks in semi-liquid funds, and links between private equity performance and lender outcomes.
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INSIGHT

GFC Created The Vacuum That Let Direct Lending Explode

  • The Global Financial Crisis reduced bank lending and spawned private credit, with direct lending becoming the fastest-growing segment.
  • Direct lending filled the bank gap for PE-sponsored deals, later marketed to individuals and retirement accounts increasing AUM sharply.
INSIGHT

The Classic Bubble Pattern Applies To Direct Lending

  • New investment fads typically follow a pattern: novelty, early success, envy-driven inflows, lowered standards, and eventual disillusionment.
  • Marks warns that early successes attract naive capital, pushing yields down and standards with it until a correction exposes weaknesses.
INSIGHT

Capital Inflows Eroded Direct Lending Standards

  • Early direct lenders could demand high rates and protections, but inflows of capital led to competition that compressed yields and loosened underwriting.
  • Low volatility of private loans (no mark-to-market) and benign 2010s environment masked weakening standards.
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