Markets Look Calm But Momentum Is Breaking—Here's What to Watch

Markets are whispering two messages at once: prices look confident, but momentum is slipping. In this episode, we unpack that tension with a plain-spoken tour through the data—starting with an S&P 500 that's still climbing while RSI and weekly MACD cool, a classic divergence that often precedes choppy corrections. We frame valuation bands that don't predict the turn but do set expectations for how far a slip could run if earnings wobble.

Then we connect the dots across the fixed-income complex. We revisit the 60/40 playbook as stock-bond correlations drift higher, explain why a broken four-decade trend in the 10-year Treasury points to structurally higher rates, and demystify mortgage pricing by focusing on the prepayment option embedded in every home loan. Credit spreads remain tight—a key reason the bond market hasn't flashed broad stress—yet they're the canary we watch for early warnings. Meanwhile, TIPS are perking up against nominals, and an index of inflation beneficiaries has pushed out of a long base, hinting that inflation pressures may reassert.

We also zoom out to the quiet drivers: gold and the dollar. A multi-year base suggests gold could outperform U.S. equities on a relative basis, providing insurance when volatility bites. The dollar's path, shaped by policy and trade aims, may tilt the field for international stocks; a softer dollar can turn currency from headwind to tailwind for foreign returns.

Find Du Charme Wealth Management here:
https://ducharmewealth.com

Phone: 
(435) 288-3396

DISCLAIMER:
Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Encompass More Asset Management LLC is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.

[00:00:00] Disclaimers And Setup
[00:04:53] Valuations And Downside Scenarios
[00:09:11] Discretionary Vs Staples Leadership
[00:15:10] Structural Rate Shift And The 10‑Year
[00:22:26] Credit Spreads And What They Signal
[00:28:35] Inflation Beneficiaries And Breakouts
[00:34:48] Dollar Path, Trade, And Tariffs
[00:38:46] U.S. Vs International Equities Setup