Was the Gulf blindsided on Iran?

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Mar 5, 2026

Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations and Iran–Gulf specialist, unpacks shifting Saudi–Iran ties and regional fallout. He traces the thaw, the China-brokered 2023 rapprochement, and how US–Israel strikes reshaped Gulf security. Short takes on balancing US ties, surprise Iranian strikes across the Gulf, and whether Gulf capitals can still broker stability.

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INSIGHT

Vision 2030 Drove Saudi Rapprochement With Iran

Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 pushed Saudi Arabia toward stability and foreign investment, motivating outreach to Iran.
The Khashoggi fallout damaged investor confidence, so MBS sought better regional ties to reassure investors and enable costly projects like Neom.

INSIGHT

Soft Diplomacy Prepared The Ground For Normalisation

After 2019 Saudi diplomacy shifted to back-channel talks, think-tank meetings and cultural softening to dispel demonising narratives about Iran.
These quieter initiatives preceded the formal thaw and made normalisation possible.

ANECDOTE

China Brokered Saudi Iran Normalisation In 2023

Simon Mabon describes the March 2023 China-brokered deal where Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to reopen embassies and normalize ties.
Cultural signs of thaw included Persian food gaining popularity in Riyadh and softened positions in Saudi think tanks.

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As Israel and the US continued to bomb Iran after killing the country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Iran lashed out at its neighbours with multiple drone strikes, including against the US embassy in Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have a long and bitter rivalry. Yet, in recent years, the Saudis had begun building new diplomatic relationship with Iran, even as they and other Gulf states continued to host American military bases, and court American investment.

Now the Gulf states find themselves in the middle of the very regional conflict many of its leaders hoped to avoid. It's one which threatens longstanding efforts to cement the Gulf as a hub for finance, travel and tourism, and as an oasis of security.

Were they blindsided? Or did some actually want the US to attack Iran? With the US and Israel seemingly calling the shots, what will the Gulf states do now?

In today's episode, we speak to Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University in the UK and expert in Saudi-Iran relations, about how the Gulf's delicate balancing act between the US and Iran came toppling down.

This episode was written and produced by Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood. The executive producers was Gemma Ware. Mixing by Eleanor Brezzi and theme music by Neeta Sarl. Read the f ull credits for this episode and sign up here for a free daily newsletter from The Conversation.

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