Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes What the Iran war means for Europe’s energy
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Apr 2, 2026 Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow focused on the geopolitics of Europe’s energy, discusses how the Middle East war is reshaping Europe's energy landscape. He highlights competition with Asian LNG buyers and risks from Qatar and shipping-route disruptions. He also examines pressure to return to Russian supplies, limits of US LNG, and why accelerating renewables and resilience is urgent.
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Europe's Direct Exposure To Middle East Is Small But Vulnerability Is Big
- Europe has low direct dependence on Middle Eastern fossil fuel imports but high overall import dependence on fossil fuels.
- EU imports: Qatar <4% of total, Middle East ~6–7% of crude oil, yet EU relies ~90% on oil and ~85% on gas imports, making indirect shocks material.
Qatar Outage Risks Global LNG Shortage
- Qatar supplies almost 20% of global LNG so damage or prolonged outage would tighten global gas markets.
- If Qatar remains out for months, Europe could face price shocks similar to 2022 as Asian buyers compete for alternate LNG.
Regional Disruptions Can Remove Over 10% Of Global Oil Supply
- Current disruptions have removed 11–15 million barrels per day, about 11–15% of global crude demand, pressuring prices.
- Continued Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz issues plus hits to Russian export infrastructure could push oil to $100–$150+ per barrel.