
Ones and Tooze Iran and Habermas
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Mar 20, 2026 Adam Tooze, Columbia history professor and foreign policy economics columnist, offers sweeping analysis of Iran’s escalation and global oil market shocks. He explores Strait of Hormuz risks, war insurance costs, and Iran’s strategic advantages. He then turns to Jürgen Habermas, outlining his ideas on the public sphere, communicative action, and critiques of technocracy.
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Markets Can Ignore Geopolitical Tail Risks For Too Long
- Financial markets may underprice tail risks when they expect conflicts to be short lived.
- Tooze describes markets still 'ticking over' with investors dancing while acknowledging one or two shocks could crack confidence like in early COVID.
War Insurance Makes Strait Transits Economically Impossible
- War insurance markets collapse for standard covers during active conflict, drastically raising transit costs.
- Tooze notes Lloyd's war insurance is unavailable and bespoke cover can cost ~5% of a ship's value, making many voyages uneconomic.
Iran Will Prioritize Weapons And Political Stability Over Macro Health
- Iran's wartime economic choices prioritize military production and regime stability over normal economic management.
- Tooze cites Iran's 60% minimum wage increase as a political move to blunt protests while Revolutionary Guards' business networks sustain war spending.







