Chalkboard Politics: Will Tariffs Unravel the Global Economic Order?

Feb 12, 2026

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In this episode, Paul and Gulnaz sit down with Professor Jeffry Frieden, author of Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century, to unpack what tariffs are, how they work, and their role in U.S. policy and abroad. Frieden describes how tariffs are some of the oldest tools of statecraft, tracing their history of domestic impacts through the British Corn Laws and showing how they raise prices for consumers while protecting favored producers. The conversation addresses the Trump administration’s expansive use of tariffs, operating not just as economic policy tools, but as instruments of foreign policy, bargaining, and national security. Overall, this episode asks whether Trump’s tariffs will ultimately decenter the U.S. in the global economy, and what a potential re-ordering could look like.

Episode’s Main Themes:

Tariffs as Economic and Political Power
- - Tariffs are tools that redistribute costs and benefits within societies, project power internationally, and shape domestic politics and foreign relations.

Key terms: domestic industry protection, import/export, geoeconomics

The Break from the Postwar Trade Order
- - The Trump administration’s tariff policy is a sharp departure from long-standing economic norms, including multilateralism and Most Favored Nation (MFN) rules that have structured global trade since 1945.

Key terms: MFN, multilateralism, “Liberation Day,” international institutions, trade diversion

Domestic Costs and Global Consequences
- - While tariffs are often framed as protecting national interests, their costs are largely borne by domestic consumers and firms.
  - Abroad, tariffs motivate trade diversion, uncertainty, and new alliances that bypass the United States.

Key terms: Consumers, producers, free trade, protectionism, trade agreements

An Uncertain Transition in Global Leadership
- - Current trade conflicts are part of a larger shift away from the U.S.-led economic integration.
  - This move towards retrenchment by the U.S. raises the question of whether the world is moving toward a reordered system or risking instability and fragmentation.

Key terms: Global order, great power competition, isolationism, trade wars