Macro Voices MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle: China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War
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Apr 30, 2026 
Daniel Lacalle, Tressis chief economist and fund manager known for macro and energy analysis, joins to dissect inflation, energy shortages, and geopolitical risk. He explains why Europe faces the sharpest pain from fuel disruptions. They cover oil price floors, dollar and gold moves, and supply-chain and food risks in compact, direct conversation.
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Stamina Favors The U.S. And China In A Blockade Contest
- Both the U.S. and China can 'wait out' disruptions longer than Europe or many emerging economies.
- Lacalle notes China’s large stockpiles and U.S. net exports (~2.8 million b/d) give staying power others lack.
Avoid Price Controls That Break Price Signals
- Avoid blanket price controls; they worsen shortages and deter investment in supply security.
- Lacalle says most EU policymakers resist controls but warn windfall taxes risk starving firms that could boost flexibility.
Policy Choices Are Driving Persistent Inflation
- Secular persistent inflation is likely because governments expand demand and money supply.
- Lacalle links soaring money supply and policies aimed at maintaining aggregate demand to durable inflationary pressure.