Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

It Takes Two To Tango (Ep. 180)

Mar 25, 2026

They break down recent market volatility driven by inflation, rising yields, and geopolitical chatter. The conversation highlights shifting sector leadership, why bonds may no longer hedge like before, and risk-on signals hiding inside a tough week. They also cover historical pullbacks, midterm-year market quirks, and diversification tactics like managed futures and commodities.

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INSIGHT

Risk On Signals Despite A Rough Week

A mild pullback with sector rotation can still hide risk-on signals in the market.
Staples lagging, rising high-beta vs low-vol, and financials/private credit strength signaled risk-on despite a rough week.

INSIGHT

Inflationary Regime Changes Diversification

Inflation creates a different regime where traditional defensive assets may underperform.
Rising yields compete with dividend stocks like staples, and gold/bonds can behave unexpectedly in an inflationary shock.

INSIGHT

Fed Is In A Bind On Inflation

The Fed faces an unusual bind as inflation was already rising before recent shocks.
Core PCE running near 3% plus commodity shocks means rate cuts this year look unlikely versus market pricing.

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In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did.

The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility.

They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing.

From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality.

Key Takeaways:

Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets
Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever
Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations
Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy
Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market

Jump to:

0:00 – Welcome!

1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement

2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week

4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality

8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market

12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns

19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies

21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes

25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End

30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge

37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks

40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

[inflation regime investing, market volatility midterm years, federal reserve inflation problem, diversification in inflation environment, bonds vs stocks inflation, managed futures diversification strategy, investor sentiment indicators, stock market pullbacks history, earnings growth stock market outlook, interest rates and equities, portfolio diversification strategies, macroeconomic investing outlook, inflation and profit margins, market corrections vs bear markets]