The Giant Planning Error That Destroyed Housing Supply

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Mar 6, 2026

A look at why seniors rarely downsize and how that mistaken planning assumption worsened housing shortages. Discussion of the financial and policy disincentives that make moving unrealistic. Exploration of how terms like "overhoused" shape public attitudes and fuel resentment. Ideas for gentle density and policy fixes that could let seniors downsize without uprooting community ties.

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INSIGHT

Planners Misread Senior Downsizing Trends

City planners long assumed seniors would downsize and free family homes, but that expectation hasn't materialized.
Mike Moffatt notes planners overestimated downsizing and underestimated life expectancy, so forecasts are outdated.

ANECDOTE

Mike's Parents Never Downsized Despite Wanting To

Mike Moffatt uses his parents as a two-person focus group who threatened to downsize for 25 years but never did.
They face high moving costs and can't find housing that meets their needs in the same price range, so they stay put.

INSIGHT

Overhoused Label Fuels Resentment Not Solutions

The term "overhoused" stigmatizes lifestyle choices and fuels NIMBY narratives instead of solving housing supply.
Mike Moffatt argues 'overhoused' implies a government preference for how people should live, shifting blame onto seniors.

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For decades, housing planners have assumed that seniors would eventually downsize, freeing up family homes for the next generation. But that hasn’t happened.

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why most seniors choose to stay in their homes and why that decision is often perfectly rational. High moving costs, limited housing options, strong community ties, and government policies that encourage aging in place all make downsizing far less appealing than planners expected.

This mistaken assumption has shaped housing forecasts, contributed to today’s housing shortage, and fueled tensions between generations. Are seniors really the problem, or did policymakers simply plan the housing system around the wrong idea?

And if seniors aren’t moving, what does that mean for families trying to find space in cities where family-sized homes remain scarce?

In this episode, we discuss:

The Over-Housing Myth: Why the term does more harm than good.
The Cost of Moving: Taxes, fees, and the "financial loser" trade-off of downsizing.
Involuntary Over-Housing: What happens when seniors want to move but have nowhere to go.
Policy Failure: How municipal assumptions about generational turnover are decades out of date.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

01:00 The Irony of Planners Assuming Seniors Will Downsize

2:32 Flawed Assumptions About Generational Turnover and Life Expectancy

03:47 The Problematic Term "Overhoused"

07:11 Defining "Involuntarily Overhoused"

08:25 Underhousing Statistics in Toronto

09:04 Zero Sum Mentality Created By Housing Shortage

10:40 Density as a Solution for Seniors and Reducing Resentment

12:33 The Financial Calculation: Why Moving Makes No Sense for Seniors

14:00 Policies Actively Paying Seniors to Stay in Place

16:09 Places where they have Implemented Better Policy