The Take Why Iran’s system may endure the US–Israel strikes
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Mar 2, 2026 
Ali Hashem, Al Jazeera correspondent and regional analyst with frontline experience in Iran and Lebanon, offers on-the-ground political analysis. He describes recent U.S.-Israeli strikes and potential escalation. He explains why Iran’s system was built to survive leadership loss. He examines succession debates, Hezbollah’s calculations, and the unclear horizon of this conflict.
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System Over Person Keeps Iran Intact
- Iran's political system is built to survive the loss of its supreme leader.
- Ali Hashem explains the 1979 design and Khomeini's priority to preserve the regime even over the life of the infallible Imam, making leadership decapitation unlikely to collapse the state.
Don’t Assume Decapitation Equals Collapse
- External actors may underestimate Iran because they expect collapse after decapitation.
- Hashem doubts U.S. planners were that superficial, noting Iran's multi-layered, non-personalized governance makes simple collapse unlikely.
Khamenei's Death Could Empower Hardliners
- Khamenei's death may remove internal restraints on hardliners and empower the IRGC.
- Ali Hashem suggests the late supreme leader imposed caution that limited the IRGC, and his removal could unleash more radical decision-making.