Tech capex shock, crypto slides, rotation debate

US futures point lower, led by tech, after Alphabet warned of a sharp ramp in AI spending. Investors are weighing whether massive capital expenditures signal durable growth or margin pressure, with Amazon earnings next as the key test.

Alphabet (GOOGL) plans up to $185B in 2026 capital expenditures, nearly double last year and far above expectations, triggering a sell-off despite accelerating cloud and search growth. The message is demanding strength but near-term cash burn, reviving questions around AI returns. Amazon (AMZN) now carries the baton after the bell.

Risk appetite also cracked elsewhere. Bitcoin fell below $70,000, down 44% from its peak, dragging crypto equities like Strategy (MSTR). Commodities weakened as silver plunged and energy names slipped, with ConocoPhillips (COP) cutting output plans. Estée Lauder (EL) slid on a cautious outlook, testing confidence in its turnaround.

Trending tickers: Strategy (MSTR) as bitcoin breaks support, Estée Lauder (EL) on soft guidance, and ConocoPhillips (COP) amid oil price pressure.

Takeaways:

• Alphabet’s AI capital expenditures reset is the day’s main market driver

• Amazon results will frame AI spending tolerance

• Crypto weakness is pressuring levered proxies

• Rotation into cyclicals remains intact but uneven

• Tech execution, not vision, decides the next leg

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