South Korea's birth rate is rising, but the population is still shrinking

Feb 26, 2026

Stuart Gietel-Basten, demographer and professor of social science and public policy at HKUST, discusses South Korea’s recent rise in births amid ongoing population shrinkage. He covers what a 0.8 fertility rate really means, Korea’s rapid fertility decline, social pressures that delay parenthood, policy efforts and their limits, and the effects of ageing and rising deaths.

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INSIGHT

Small Uptick Does Not Mean Turnaround

South Korea's recent rise to a 0.8 fertility rate is a small reversal, not a recovery.
Stuart Gietel-Basten notes 0.8 remains extremely low compared with most countries and needs longer-term data to confirm a trend.

INSIGHT

Low Fertility Came From Compressed Modernisation

Korea's fertility collapse followed rapid development and top-down antinatalist policies in the 1960s–80s.
Those policies, combined with urbanisation and education investment, produced a long-term demographic shift and then a demographic dividend.

INSIGHT

Unequal Care Roles Raise Hidden Childbearing Costs

Gender norms and the unequal division of care make childbearing costly in Korea beyond financial price.
Stuart highlights a very large motherhood penalty and slow cultural change despite economic transformation.

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South Korea’s very low birth rate and ageing population have long served as a cautionary tale for other governments worried that they’ll see similar demographic challenges.

But now, for the second year running, more people in South Korea are having children. The 6.8% rise in births in 2025 is the largest rise since 2007, and has taken the country’s total fertility rate to 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024. The news is being cautiously celebrated, but with South Korea’s overall population still shrinking, it is yet to reverse its demographic fortunes.

In this episode, we speak to Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demographer and professor of social science and public policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, about how South Korea has got to this point and some of the structural issues the country still faces.

This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware and Katie Flood. Mixing by Eleanor Brezzi and theme music by Neeta Sarl. Read the f ull credits for this episode and sign up here for a free daily newsletter from The Conversation.

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